Incorrect Asian aerosols affecting the attribution and projection of regional climate change in CMIP6 models

Abstract Anthropogenic aerosol (AA) forcing has been shown as a critical driver of climate change over Asia since the mid-20th century. Here we show that almost all Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models fail to capture observed dipole pattern optical depth (AOD) trends during 2006–2014, last decade CMIP6 historical simulation, due an opposite trend eastern China compared with observations. The incorrect AOD is attributed problematic AA emissions adopted by CMIP6. There are obvious differences in simulated regional radiative and temperature responses when using two different inventories (one CMIP6; other from Peking university, more trustworthy inventory) driving global aerosol-climate model separately. We further some widely pathways (after 2015) also significantly underestimate recent decline China. These flaws may bring about errors CMIP6-based attribution for decades projection next few decades, previously anticipated inform wide range impact analysis.